A sequence of growth
I estimate that the spike had been growing for 1 week hidden within the folds of the leaves before I first noticed it. Based on that count, the picture above shows growth from days 7, 11, and 13. The spike quickly acquired a dark burgundy color, which matches the color of this orchid's blooms. On day 12, I carefully pried the tip of the spike out of the leaf fold, and overnight, the spike straitened out to what you can see in the rightmost picture.
EDIT 3/29: Identified as Wilsonara Pacific Perspective!
I was so excited to spot this last night. This is not an orchid I expected to see blooming any time soon (its roots were in pretty bad shape). I am really hopeful that the flower spike takes, as it is probably my favorite among my plants. It aborted a flower spike last year due to poor potting conditions, so here's hoping that this time I'll do better.
I'm not sure what triggered it--perhaps the apartment has been a little colder, or that I changed my watering style to be more conservative. Now that the spike is there, I will be watering the oncidium with a low nitrogen bloom booster fertilizer, but otherwise trying to keep the conditions as stable as possible.
One interesting note is that this spike showed up really suddenly. Just a couple days ago I was looking at the wrinkling on the little leaf with concern (a sign of dehydration/root issues) and there was no sign of the spike. I'll be keeping close tabs as the spike grows and develops over the next several weeks.
yay! :-)
Edit 3/28: Now blooming!
EDIT 3/29: Identified as Wilsonara Pacific Perspective!